The following text is copyright 1994 by
Network World, permission is hearby given for reproduction, as long as
attribution is given and this notice is included.
By: Scott Bradner
Well, even though I'm
not a professional predictor (nor do I play one on TV) it is that time of year,
so here I go. Predictions fall into a number of levels of confidence from 'bet
the rent check' to 'sure fella'. You will have to guess which prediction falls
at which level.
I predict that the
growth of articles about the Internet will continue at a rate exceeding even
the growth of the Internet itself.
I predict that,
following its brilliant refusal to support DCE, Apple Computer will come up
with yet another way to make sure that its products do not conform to
developing industry standards.
I predict that [Apple,
Digital, IBM, Novell] will pronounce that its own protocol [AppleTalk, DECNET
Phase V/OSI, SNA/APPN, IPX] is [better, faster, smaller] than TCP/IP. I also
predict that the use of TCP/IP will continue to outstrip the above (at least
for internetworking applications).
(Unfortunately) I
predict that there will be another Internet security event that will capture
the attention of the national news media. This will get people to wondering yet
again if anything has changed in Internet security since the Internet Worm of
1988. (The answer is 'not much'.) This will make it much harder to get
companies to connect to the net.
(Also unfortunately) I
predict that 'porn on the Internet' will attract one or more crusading
reporters who, after doing plenty of research, will expose (if that be the
right term) the scandal. This will make it much harder to get schools connected
to the net. (If the last two predictions come true, I predict that the National
Information Infrastructure will more closely resemble a video store than an
information highway.)
I predict that, as it
happened with 16Mb token ring and FDDI, just as ATM begins to get cost
effective 'the network of the future' will start to be seen around the corner,
thereby continue the state of FUD (fear, uncertainty and dread) under which
network designers have had to live for the last few years.
I predict that someone
(anyone) in a telco will start to understand what it means to provide Internet
service. (Ordinarily, I'd give this prediction a higher probability since I
know of at least one telco that just hired someone rather well qualified to
tell them what this entails however he still has to persuade those he works for
that the world is not dial tone and information operators.)
I predict that after
Allison Mankin and I announce of our decision on IPng, our logic and powers of
persuasion will carry the day and all competing technologies will melt away
leaving one unifiable world-wide information structure. (Unifiable, not
unified, since we still have that pesky worry about security - and then there
are all those national borders, figuring out who is going to pay for what bits
[so to speak] etc.)
I predict that I will
not have to keep doing the annual router performance tests because all of the
equipment vendors will begin to put out clear, believable performance numbers
on their products.
I predict that coming up
with topics for a column every two weeks will get to be interesting (if that is
the proper term for the panic the comes when a deadline looms) so please send
me ideas, questions, favorite gripes, etc. (Acknowledgments given.)
Disclaimer of the week:
(seen on the net but I don't remember whom it is by) Listen to me?!? Can't
imagine why.
sob@harvard.edu